Can’t Anybody Here Play This Game? 

Casey Stengel asked the famous question in frustration when talking to the 1962 Mets after they racked up a record breaking 162 losses in their inaugural season. 

The same question might be asked of both the Trump and Harris campaigns. Both look like they are doing their level best to lose the upcoming face-off this November. Unfortunately, only one of them can lose. And that is very, very unfortunate. 

When Donald J Trump selected J.D. Vance to be his running mate it was apparent to roughly everybody that there was a very good chance that President Joe Biden was going to be forced out of the race. However, the Trump campaign simply assumed that (1) Biden would be the opponent, and that (2) Trump would easily win, perhaps in a landslide.  

As a result, Trump’s VP selection was drenched in hubris. He made no effort to broaden the pool of potential voters he could appeal to. Nor did the campaign do any serious research into potentially damaging revelations about Vance, or come up with responses to those revelations.  Not surprisingly, the roll-out did not go well. 

And then after successfully pushing Biden out the door, along comes Kamala Harris to the rescue. Except that in the VP selection process, she, like Trump, decided to double down, this time, ideologically. She eventually settled on Tim Walz, currently the governor of deep blue Minnesota, who distinguished himself by fiddling in 2020 while Minneapolis burned. In so doing, she selected as her running mate a hard-left progressive like herself.

Harris did not attempt to broaden her appeal by selecting Josh Shapiro, an outspoken defender of Israel and a relatively moderate Democratic governor of a must-win swing state.  Instead Harris apparently decided to placate the progressive wing of her party which had lobbied furiously against Shapiro. 

This even as “Squad” member Cori Bush (D-Mo)  was in the process of suffering the same ignominious fate as fellow Squad member Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), who was similarly ousted in his primary. The defeats of these two has been largely (and probably correctly) attributed to their outspoken sympathy for Hamas. 

Which also raises the question of how a Harris Administration would treat foreign policy, specifically with respect to Iran / Gaza and Israel; Ukraine and Russia, and potentially China and Taiwan.  It just won’t do to simply assert that Trump is clueless. Of course he is. But that doesn’t grant the opposition a get-out-of-jail-free card. We should hear what the candidate has to say. Something other than I’m not the other guy.

But there is a problem here. Actually two problems. The first is that Harris was part and parcel of the cover-up of Biden’s mental deterioration. Right up until the infamous debate Harris was still insisting, as she had previously on many occasions, that Biden was sharp as a tack. Since she is such an obvious liar, the question is: why would anybody believe a word she says?

There is second problem that is not unrelated to the first. While she is busy jettisoning her past positions at the speed of light, she apparently thinks people will take her seriously. For instance,  all of a sudden she is “tough on the border”. That Green New Deal she signed on to, well that was then. And that bit about defunding the police? She doesn’t buy into that anymore. 

Harris once wanted to ban fracking. And she wanted to ban offshore drilling on federal lands. Before she was against it she was in favor  of Medicare for All, not to mention that she once wanted to eliminate private health care insurance.  And she wanted to start a program of “mandatory buy backs” of “assault weapons”. 

In short, she endorsed the whole laundry list of progressive goals. And now she is trying to walk away from them. In that effort she is getting an assist from the clerks in the press  who call them selves journalists. But she chose a running mate that, from a policy standpoint, is even more extreme than she is. 

Not only is he on board with all her past positions, when he was Governor of Minnesota he issued executive orders giving minors access to irreversible chemical and surgical treatments for gender dysphoria. Under his tenure Minnesota had some of the most draconian Covid-era restrictions, which unsurprisingly had little or no positive effects. His administration also attempted to ration social benefits by race. And let’s not forget the mayhem in Minnesota on Walz’s watch that overwhelmed law enforcement during the “mostly peaceful” protests that occurred in the wake of the George Floyd murder. 

The net of all this is that the two main contenders are acting like amateurs who don’t know the rules of the game.  In his VP selection,  Trump has doubled down on abrasiveness. But not on policy; it isn’t clear he even has what could be reasonably described as a coherent policy outlook. 

Harris, on the other hand, has not had a single press conference since Biden dropped out. Thus far she has been busy trying to disguise her extreme ideology by running a Biden style basement campaign. But her choice of Tim Walz as VP nominee gives the game away. She has assembled a team of hard core lefty extremists. And she can not be trusted. 

A pox on both their houses. 

JFB

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Let Trump Be Trump? No Thanks.

Well, it didn’t take long. When the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) handed Trump an opportunity to make an ass of himself, Trump eagerly seized it. He did so by jumping into the deep end of the racial identity pool. His sin was to question the identity of Kamala Harris as “black” rather than Indian. 

As if the respective characterizations are (1) important and (2) mutually exclusive. Why skin tone should be important to anyone with an IQ above room temperature is something of a mystery. And as a simple empirical matter, as intermarriage continues to gain ground, lots of Americans have a multi-racial, multi-ethnic background.  

None of which should be taken as an excuse for Trump’s real sin, which was, and is, political amateurism. He should have known better than to dive into this trap. In effect he validated the race, class, gender ideology of his opposition. 

Similarly, his pick of J.D. Vance, lately of cat-lady fame, to be his running mate demonstrated a foolhardy over-confidence. Not only that, it also provided evidence that the Trump campaign is undeniably amateurish. How else to explain why the campaign could not, or did not, foresee the possibility if not probability that President Joe Biden would be forced out of the race, thus refocusing the campaign. How is it that the campaign did not adequately vet Vance so that they at least had prepared responses to his many controversial remarks? 

The best explanation for the unforced errors thus far is that Trump is being…well, Trump. Which is probably the best way to remind voters exactly what they don’t like about Trump. Which is an awful lot. And that leaves out his disgraceful behavior on January 6, 2021 which alone is, or ought to be, disqualifying. 

It is also important to recognize the reason that Trump has the Republican nomination. Sure, he was given a big assist by the Democrats’ lawfare campaign, which may turn out to be one of the biggest backfires in the history of American politics. Beyond that though, it has to be acknowledged that Trump secured the nomination by getting far more votes than any of his challengers in the Republican primaries. 

Those voters include a lot of people who either believe, or profess to believe, that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. It also includes a whole lot of elected Republican officials who pretend to believe that the election was stolen, some of whom actively encouraged the mob on January 6. Which is another way of saying that this is not your father’s Republican Party. 

In some sense then, the nomination of Trump is the exact opposite of the Democrats’ claim that Trump is a threat to democracy. What you see is what you get. And what you see is not another Hitler, despite the fervent beliefs of the Democratic party faithful. On the contrary what Trump represents is transactional politics at its worst. Trump’s core belief is not ideological; rather it is that he should be in charge, details to follow. 

What we have in HRH Donald Trump is a 78 year old man  with the intellectual and emotional maturity of a 15 year old; a needy adolescent who loves being at the center of attention.  Which is exactly where Harris and Co. would like to place him. 

So can we use game theory to predict the behavior of voters? Possibly, yes. Let’s make some assumptions about voter preferences and how voters rank order them. Assume the following preferences among the voters.

Trump Voter Pool

  1. Diehard Trump voters are centered on personality; they want Trump to be president come hell or high water.  They do not care very much about policy details. 
  2. Trump voters whose minds are made up feel culturally besieged; they are looking for a counter-cultural leader.
  3. Trump persuadable voters care somewhat about policy; specifically they care about a fluid border policy, they are bothered by inflation, the family budget and the general state of the economy. 
  4. Possibly persuadable Trump voters are uncomfortable with the personality of Kamala Harris

Harris Voter Pool

(1b) Hard core Progressives and committed Democrats see Harris as ideologically compatible; they want her to be elected. Further, they are convinced that Donald Trump really does represent a threat to democracy. 

(2b) People who consider themselves to be liberal and who are college educated; they  believe that Harris represents their cultural values. They are squeamish about the Israeli — Hamas War. 

(3c) Harris persuadable voters care somewhat about policy; those policies, however, differ somewhat from Trump voters. They are mostly in favor of abortion rights, are worried about climate change,  and favor some expanded social programs. 

(4d)  Potential Harris voters are very uncomfortable with Trump’s personality. They tend to be blue collar, are probably not college degree holders. However they are relatively comfortable, live in suburbs, are probably female, are concerned about crime and public schools and are hesitant about getting stuck with the bill for progressive priorities. 

Now lets put the respective priorities in a grid and see what it tells us. (See below). 


HARRIS Voters
TRUMP Voters1, 43, 2



2, 34, 1



Game Theory Matrix

Trump voter priorities are rank ordered in the first column in the grid on the left; Harris voter priorities are rank ordered in the second column in the grid on the right. Assuming that the respective priorities are described correctly, it is immediately apparent that neither Trump voters nor Harris voters would be content with a victory by the other side. Each has victory as the #1 priority. Neither will gracefully acknowledge the other’s victory. Trump will insist the election was stolen. Harris will insist that she was done in by racism and mysogenism.

The remaining solutions remain cyclical, meaning either a 3,2 or 2, 3 solution, which suggests that the November results will not be ideologically dispositive. Each side, and especially the losing side, will look forward to the next contest. In turn this suggests that the election campaign will be contested almost exclusively with respect to personnel. And not in a good way. 

Policy discussion will be next to non-existent because Trump side policies are inconsistent, entirely transactional and personality driven.  On the other hand,  the Harris side is largely driven by her personality in that she is the candidate solely because Biden was thrown overboard; her personality (and the Democratic Party) is integrally tied up with identitarian politics, and she will try to run away (perhaps successfully) from the very left-wing proposals she made during the 2020 Democratic primaries. 

All in all a game theory model suggests what the polls suggest. Namely, the outcome of the contest is likely to be extremely close; it will satisfy almost no one except hard core supporters, there will be little serious policy discussion and the political system will remain unstable. 

That said all is not bleak. There is plenty of policy ferment where people live: at the state and local level. That is cause for hope that the nonsense coming out of the national parties will burn out and we can return to normalcy. One of these days, anyway.

JFB 

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A Palace Coup?

Democratic Party grandees are very close to achieving their goal of securing their party’s presidential nomination for somebody, anybody, not named Joe Biden. These saviors of democracy mean to do so by convincing incumbent President Biden to hit the eject button on his chair behind the resolute desk in the oval office.  

In the event they accomplish their goal—and they are very close—they will have successfully overridden the votes of about 14 million Democratic primary voters. These are the voters who awarded about 99% of the delegates to the national convention pledged to Mr Biden. All to save democracy, of course.

Mr Biden can release his delegates to vote for someone else, which is the preferred poo-bah mechanism for a replacement nominee. The proximate cause for the panicky collapse of support for the incumbent is two fold. The first is polling data that shows the near impossibility of a Biden victory, especially in swing states. The second is action taken by major donors to withhold funds if Mr Biden remains at the top of the ticket. (Note that said money is routinely referred to as “dark money” when it goes to anybody else.) 

This was all presaged by Mr Biden’s catastrophic debate performance on June 27. Add to that the attempted assassination of rival Donald J Trump by an apparently unhinged 20 year-old and all the elements pointing to an incumbent defeat are there.  

It is important to note that the reason for Mr Biden’s (to put it charitably) unedifying  debate performance was the obvious deterioration of his mental acuity. That deterioration left him unable either to maintain a train of thought or to complete sentences. Those factors however, did not seem to be a primary motivator in the drive to dump Mr Biden. Neither did Mr Biden’s apparent inability to function at anything approaching normalcy.

So what did cause the revolt of Democratic Party elites?

First and foremost, they got caught. Remember that, aided by the mainstream press, Democratic elites spent the better part of 4 years claiming that Mr Biden was as “sharp as a tack”. By the time the debate rolled around it was apparent to even the most obtuse observers that Mr Biden was mentally struggling.  And now it is clear as a bell that the coterie of Biden sycophants that assured one and all that Biden was just fine has been lying the whole time. Either that or they were incapable of seeing what was right in front of their eyes. 

The obvious question now is: Why would anybody believe a word they say?

Beyond that there is what should be the most pressing issue. Namely, the President is, first and foremost, the Commander-in-Chief. And he alone has his finger on the nuclear trigger. Going by their public statements, that does not seem to have been a concern of Democratic Party elites. 

In fairness, it is always possible that the party actually has considered this, but did not want to say out loud what everyone was thinking. But if that is the case, they should have at least attempted to remove Biden via the 25th amendment. At the very least they should not be deliberating whether or not to keep him on the ballot. Instead they should let him know in no uncertain terms that they will publicly oppose him and his attempt to be re-elected. 

Let’s put it this way. Who among us wants to risk Biden being awakened at 3:00 AM because China has invaded Taiwan and he has to make a split second decision on how to respond. The question answers itself. 

So what to make of it?

The temptation is to think that the Democrats made their bed, let them sleep in it. The problem is, we are all in the same bed with them, like it or not. 

Consequently, we are now in a position where the leaders of the Democratic Party, those defenders of democracy, are either going to stage a palace coup in relatively short order, or they are going to acquiesce to running a man to be Commander-in-Chief despite the fact that his mental deficiencies are clearly disqualifying.  

Ordinarily the problem could be isolated. The  political party that acted as irresponsibly as the Democrats could be simply cashiered at the next election. But there are still 3 ½ months until the election is held, and 6 months until a new President is sworn in. 

There is only one solution for the mess we are in, and it is decidedly sub-optimal. Democrats should force the issue so that Mr Biden resigns and Vice President Kamala Harris takes the oath of office. 

But we still have the issue of the November election. Ms Harris is manifestly unqualified for the job. But so is Mr Trump. Perhaps, in the meantime, the Democrats will find and nominate someone who is competent and electable. They will have to look awfully hard. 

JFB

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Assassination Attempt

In the wake of an assassination attempt on the life of  ex-President and presumptive Republican nominee Donald J Trump, a virtual army of conspiracy theorists, armchair psychologists and amateur law enforcement wannabes are having a collective field day.  Their chosen place of battle, needless to say, is X, formerly known as Twitter. 

Perhaps it is time to take a deep breath and lay off; at least until actual facts come to light and in their proper context. That is very unlikely to happen because, among other things, the population at large distrusts the mainstream media and other assorted institutions. And truth be told, that distrust is well earned. 

Leaving aside the devout beliefs of the simpletons among us, there is not just one single reason for the degrading of trust in our institutions. Certainly the overheated rhetoric of politicians is one factor. Another is the change in incentives faced by media and other public players. When newspapers and broadcasters depended on broad-based advertising for revenue their incentives favored an appeal to a broad based audience. Now, however, narrowcasting changes that incentive structure. The same players now have an incentive to appeal to those who are highly motivated; they are often fringe players. 

Let’s not leave out politicians. That politicians routinely lie, and have lied for a very long time, is hardly a news flash. Recall it was Lyndon Johnson who in 1964 proclaimed “We are not about to send American boys 9 or 10 thousand miles away from home to do what Asian boys ought to be doing for themselves” before doing precisely that. 

But Johnson’s lie was an attempt to make a broad based appeal. Today’s lies are more specific and tailored to reach specific voting groups in a way that before would not have been possible. Only after a committed  interest group has been assembled is an attempt made to mainstream the underlying goal. 

It usually begins with a change in language designed to draw attention away from the underlying concept.  The “Trans” movement is a case in point; so is the abortion rights movement—it has reframed the issue as reproductive freedom. Challenges—both real and imagined—are routinely marketed as existential threats. For example, think climate change, pandemics, population growth, asteroid collisions, environmental degradation etc. etc. 

What is different from past eras is that we live in a DIY era in which people have been taught to disregard reason and instead follow their feelings. Unless, of course, their feelings contradict whatever the received wisdom of the day is, in which case they will be shamed into accepting “the science TM “.

Which, by the way, the public does not understand. They do not understand that science is about methodology and that scientific conclusions are contingent.  The public however, aided and abetted by an unthinking media complex suffers from white coat naiveté. As long as somebody wears a white lab coat and proclaims himself a scientist, he must be the font of all that is true and good. At least as long as he speaks the conventional wisdom. But I digress.

We actually know very little about the apparent  assassination attempt on Donald Trump. It is certainly legitimate to ask questions. But we should not assume the answer. For instance, it is perfectly reasonable to ask the obvious question: how in the world was the alleged shooter able to get into position where he apparently had a clear shot? But it is not reasonable to assume the answer ahead of time.

In any event, let’s wait for the facts to trickle in and not jump to any conclusions. We will probably know soon enough what happened and why. 

JFB

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Is Winning Really the Only Thing?

 “…Of course, for a Democratic Party warning that Mr. Trump is an existential threat to the nation, the race is about something much simpler: winning.” Shane Goldmacher, The New York Times July 6, 2025. 

“…the president’s prime-time interview with ABC News was an exercise in not just damage control but reality control”. Peter Baker, The New York Times July 6, 2025. 

“You really see a president in denial and in a bubble,” Julián Castro, The New York Times July 6, 2025. 

“[The interview] will not quell the growing anger and resentment among Democrats.”Paul Begala The New York Times July 6, 2025. 

Perhaps at this point it would be fitting to quote football coach Vince Lombardi, who reportedly said “Wining isn’t everything, it’s the only thing”. That, in reality, is the sentiment that Democratic Party officials are expressing. 

You can take all faux agonizing and focus group crafted statements of the past several years and chuck them in the bin. They are finally saying what they really mean: Winning is all that matters. In this they have conclusively demonstrated that they are pretty much the same as Donald J Trump. The heated denials that will surely follow that statement are a testament to its truth.

Consider what it means when politicians put a priority on winning at all costs. Truth telling necessarily becomes subordinate to winning. Arguably, truth is not even a consideration.  For example, “I will build a wall and Mexico will pay for it” was an absurdity marketed by Mr Trump. 

When special counsel Robert Hur accurateley described Biden as a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” VP Kamala Harris charged out to say “So, the way that the president’s demeanor in that report was characterized could not be more wrong on the facts and clearly politically motivated, gratuitous…” Another obvious lie. Which also explains why AG Garland refused to release the interview tapes, duly and lawfully subpoenaed by Congress. Rule of Law and all that.

Another infamous quotation of Donald J Trump: “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. …They’re sending people that have lots of problems, … They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” Donald J Trump

How about this story in Politico: “More than 50 former senior intelligence officials have signed on to a letter outlining their belief that the recent disclosure of emails allegedly belonging to Joe Biden’s son “has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”

It turns out that that letter was arranged by now Secretary of State Anthony Blinkin. And it was released on the eve of the first Presidential debate in 2020. And it was clearly a lie. 

Of course, let’s not forget Mr. Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election results on January 6, 2021. In the speech in which he whipped up the crowd he said  “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” Peacefully and patriotically. Sure. 

Some were going to hang Mike Pence. Peacefully, of course. 

And when a mob of progressives chased Senator Krysten Sinema into a ladies room and then stormed in after her because she didn’t support the latest progressive legislation,  President Biden said it was “all part of the process”. Ditto for Senator Joe Manchin when a group of kayakers confronted him on his houseboat. 

And Mr Biden has yet to be heard from on the subject of Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh being stalked by an armed man outside his home.  Perhaps being stalked by an armed potential aggressor is all part of the process. 

The list of strategic lies told by both parties is endless. Supporting one side or the other (it doesn’t matter which) regardless of obvious transgressions is a perfect example of willful blindness.  Citizens who rely on the rationale that the other guy is such a threat reward the practice.

Without a commitment to truth there is no accountability. And without accountability, democracy is nothing more than a cause for hollow laughter. Elections within certain limits specified by the U.S. Constitution, are supposed to facilitate a collective decision making process. Elections are not supposed to be about winning at all costs. 

Try telling that to partisans who are perfectly willing to believe anything, however improbable, as long as it supports “the Cause”. 

JFB

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Will He Stay or Will He go?

Amazingly enough, on the front page of the New York Times, the headline reads Biden Tells Governors He Needs to Sleep More and Work Less at Night. Which is akin to pretending to respond to a query about your worst fault during a job interview and answering that you work too hard. 

Right below that humdinger, also on the front page, another headline reads: Should Biden Quit? Democrats Weigh Potential Rewards and Steep Risks. And right below that, a story update claims that Biden is spending Independence Day trying to tamp down calls for him to drop out of the race. 

Note that together these stories lay out the following two hypotheses. (1) The real problem here is that the President had a bad day; everybody has them; it’s not a big deal; he is working too hard, and he just needs to get more sleep. (2a) And by the way, nobody believes him or the numerous variations of the story (he had a cold etc) and (2b) the principal if not sole driver of the calculations of Democratic Party pooh-bahs is electoral advantage. 

Just think about that for a moment. The Grandees of the Democratic Party are content to deliver their presidential nomination, and quite possibly the presidency complete with the nuclear football, to a man whose neurological deterioration is so obvious that it has stirred a revolt.  A revolt that the White House is desperately trying to tamp down. If press reports are to be believed that effort is being led by Jill Biden who never got elected to anything. And not to put too fine a point on it, this is the crowd that insists it is going to save democracy. 

Meanwhile the commentariat uses dueling leaks by self-interested parties to report on the machinations of the players going on “behind closed doors”. This maneuver serves a couple of inadvertently transparent goals, one of which is misdirection. 

The press reports as breaking news what for years has been patently obvious; namely that President Biden is unable to perform the duties of his office. What they don’t report is that they have been running interference for him for years.  So as cover, we are treated to a raft of gosh-can-you-believe-this type of reporting as if this is all brand new. In the end it will convince nobody. It will inevitably be seen for what it is:  a vain attempt to dodge the dishonesty of the mainstream press and the Democratic Party establishment.   

While all this is going on let’s remember that we are involved in two shooting wars (Ukraine and Israel) and potentially a third (Taiwan). You would think that some candidate somewhere would attempt to introduce those topics into the conversation.  But no. 

Or perhaps some candidate would deign to mention the subject of the $34 trillion in debt that the U.S. has managed to accumulate. In 2017 the accumulated debt amounted to about $20 trillion; by 2021 it was $28 trillion, and now it is about $34 trillion. 

Which means that in the Trump years we added  about $8 trillion, and thus far during the Biden years we have added $6 trillion and still counting. But that doesn’t seem to matter either. 

What we simply have here is two parties vying for power, and in the most irresponsible ways imaginable. Their calculations approach being exclusively electoral with little heed paid to the world situation or America’s role in it. Neither party is acting even remotely responsibly.

If it is the case that the President lacks the vigor and mental acuity needed to run for re-election, he should not be in the White House a moment longer. We have a mechanism for dealing with this. President Biden can simply resign and Vice President Kamala Harris can take the oath of office. 

How the Democratic Party chooses to deal with the fallout is up to them. But by running Biden the way they did,  changing the rules to shut off the possibility any real opposition, those protectors of democracy, the Democrats, made their bed. Now they can sleep in it.

Unfortunately, the rest of us have to plop in  there beside them. Either that or the alternative, Donald J Trump, quite possibly the most ignorant man ever to seek (and gain) the White House. If either party had run a normal candidate (and I use that term advisedly) they would win in a heartbeat. Instead we are left with the blank stare of a senile old man running against a narcissist whose chief talent qualifies him to be a circus barker.

I, for one, would like to vote for an adult who understands the way the world works; who willingly states the premises underlying her beliefs, and who is willing to persuade rather than coerce. Accordingly, I will be writing in the name of Nikki Haley when November comes rolling around. 

JFB

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Now What?

The Great Democratic Freakout over President Biden’s debate performance is in full swing. The real question is why. What did party leaders expect? The obvious decline in Mr Biden’s cognitive abilities has been transparently evident for well over a year.

What is the explanation for why party leaders, as opposed to the rank-and-file, have insisted that Mr. Biden was just fine, and any suggestion to the contrary was just propaganda emanating from the “far right”. As far as I can tell there are two possible explanations for the behavior of those party leaders. 

The first possibility is that Democratic party leaders actually believed that Mr. Biden was up to the job for another 4 years.  While this explanation is theoretically possible, it lacks plausibility to put it mildly. Consider the evidence.

Mr Biden has for some time studiously avoided any spontaneous public exposure. He has had almost no press conferences; one-on-one interviews have been few and far between and they have only been with friendly interlocutors. Similarly there have been plenty of videos where Mr. Biden has seemed to drift off into space not knowing where he was. Most recently that included the G7 meeting where on video (see below) he was assisted by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Biden was similarly assisted by former President Obama at a fundraiser in California. And the Wall Street Journal just recently ran a front page story that presented evidence of Biden’s mental deterioration in closed door meetings.  

Is it really plausible to believe that the people who worked closely with Biden day-to-day didn’t notice any of this? If so, they are guilty of willful blindness, which also suggests that Biden is surrounded by delusional fanatics who are willing to believe anything provided it advances “the Cause”.  Given the current state of geopolitics that fanaticism is cause for alarm. 

There is, however, an alternative explanation that is far more plausible. It is that Democratic Party leaders saw Biden’s deterioration and lied about it because (a) they still thought that Biden was their best shot against a Trump restoration and (b) they wished to remain in power, no matter the cost. 

Let us consider some of the evidence for this hypothesis. For example, slightly before the first debate of the 2020 race, 51 intelligence officials (some of whom were CIA contractors) released their infamous letter stating that Hunter Biden’s laptop bore all the earmarks of Russian disinformation. We now know conclusively that that assertion was a lie. Further we know that it was arranged by Anthony Blinken, now US Secretary of State. 

Now let’s consider U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland’s refusal comply with a House Judiciary subpoena to turn over the audio tape of Robert Hur’s interview of Biden. That interview concerned Biden’s decision to illicitly retain (and share) possession of national security documents.  

Garland’s stated rationale for refusing to turn over the tapes was a claim of executive privilege. This even though he had already turned over the transcripts of the interview, which would seem to obliterate the executive privilege claims. 

As justification for his non-compliance Garland insisted that the Republicans would use the tapes to make commercials for the upcoming campaign. In this, Garland is probably correct. But it has no bearing on the question of executive privilege. 

Remember that, at the time, Hur declined to prosecute Biden. While he maintained that Biden did in fact willfully share classified information with his ghost writer, he concluded that as a matter of prosecutorial discretion, that he would not charge Biden. In his report he wrote “We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” 

Hur’s conclusion was subject to a storm of criticism by party Grandees. After Biden’s catastrophic debate performance, we now know why. Hur’s description of Biden was undoubtedly accurate and threatened the blow the lid off the cover-up of Biden’s rapidly diminishing mental capacity. Which means the inner circle was well aware of the problem and chose to support and encourage his candidacy anyway. 

We can go beyond the various investigations which, while not above the suspicion of partisanship, certainly invite a trench warfare mentality. So let’s consider a statement made by White House Communications director Karine Jean-Pierre. Ms Jean-Pierre came up with this doozy at a White House press briefing:

“Oh, my gosh, he’s the President of the United States, you know, he – I can’t even keep up with him,” Jean-Pierre told CNN’s Don Lemon. “We just got back from New Mexico, we just got back from California … just look at the work that he does, and look what he’s, how he’s delivering for the American public.”

Question: who is naive enough to believe that the (at the time) 47 year old Karine Jean-Pierre had trouble  “keeping up with” the then 79 year old Biden.  

Answer: Nobody.

This was simply a bald-faced lie, which most of the mainstream press happily consumed and regurgitated. 

And so here we have numerous examples of Mr. Biden’s rapid and conspicuous cognitive descent and the  accompanying lies of officialdom designed both to obscure  the fact and deny the obvious.  All of which was helped along by the mainstream press. 

Add to this the one-sided coverage of the Israeli-Hamas war; the “mostly peaceful” Black Lives Matter riots; the dismissive coverage of the Wuhan lab leak theory for the COVID-19 virus; the evidence-free assertions of mask-wearing efficacy; the widespread school shutdowns; the false claims of gender transition reversibility, and a whole host of other deliberate falsehoods. Simply put, there is a pronounced pattern of deliberate deception.  Which is to say the whole progressive agenda is shot full of lies. 

And necessarily so. Because the progressive agenda is at war with human nature. Anybody who doubts this should just pause for a moment and watch the shenanigans of the transgender movement.

People are not idiots. In the end the truth will be exposed and people will revolt.  In this respect the Biden debate episode simply demonstrates the utter futility of the progressive project; it depends on a perpetual cover-up of its results. How are those inner city public schools doing these days? How is modern monetary theory working out? And what is the state of the mythical Social Security Trust Fund?

Never forget that progressivism depends on scores of disinterested “experts” to guide (read coerce) society by transferring power away from individuals and toward the massive bureaucracy of the Administrative state. It necessarily robs individuals of their agency. By treating people as nothing more than cogs in a machine, it inevitably leads to identitarian politics. Not to mention its reliance on the ludicrous presumption that government bureaucrats are disinterested parties who seek merely to “do the right thing”.

In the end, the progressive project depends on a body politic that believes human nature is infinitely malleable; that history is on a predetermined trajectory and a public that buys into the polite (and not so polite) lies of officialdom. And the whole time, officialdom will seek more and more power over the lives of citizens, depriving individuals of their agency.

Ultimately, they will fail as they have done throughout history. They will simply encourage a revolt, which is precisely what is going on right now. 

JFB

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Modern v. Classical Liberals

“Governments are living things and operate as organic wholes.  Moreover, governments have their natural evolution and are one thing in one age, another in another. The makers of the Constitution constructed the federal government upon a theory of checks and balances which was meant to limit the operation of each part and allow to no single part or organ of it a dominating force; but no government can be successfully conducted upon so mechanical a theory.Leadership and control must be lodged somewhere; the whole art of statesmanship is the art of bringing the several parts of government into effective cooperation for the accomplishment of particular common objects,–and party objects at that.”

Woodrow Wilson, 1908. Emphasis added.

With their reaction to the Supreme Court’s ruling in Garland v. Cargill (the bump-stock case) the disdain with which conventional American liberals hold the U.S. constitution is now on full display. In truth it has been on display to anyone who cared to look ever since the administration of political scientist and President of Princeton, Woodrow Wilson.  In the Wilsonian view, the U.S. constitutional system of checks and balances was an impediment to be overcome (see above). That view has been and continues to be the dominant view of contemporary American liberalism. 

In contemporary liberalism, as opposed to Classical Liberalism, the object of government is to follow the will of the people (vox populi). It is up to the President through the use of the bureaucracy, staffed by “experts” to interpret and implement that will.  It is this line of thinking that gave birth to the modern Administrative state. 

Note that the Wilsonian rationale for the Administrative state is one that is entirely at odds with the Declaration of Independence. In the Declaration the function of government is to secure pre-existing rights. Not grant rights, but secure them. 

Arguably Abraham Lincoln read that classically Liberal interpretation into the Constitution in his Gettysburg address, a portion of which follows below.

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal…that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg, November 19, 1863. 

In this respect it is important to think of the Declaration as a road map that leads from the weltanschauung of the framers to its implementation via the US Constitution. This is made clear by reading the Constitution in conjunction with the Declaration, which reads (in part):

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, – 

In Lincolnesque and Wilsonian views we have a stark reminder of the differences between (a) modern liberalism that justifies the coercive power of the Administrative state and (b) Classical Liberalism that depends on the consent of the governed. Modern American liberalism vests authority in the hands of bureaucratic experts whose mission is to design policy that reflects the current whims of popular opinion. Rights are simply tools of an ever shifting majority. 

On the other hand, Classical Liberalism defines the role of government as one of securing pre-existing, meaning pre-political rights, rather than granting them. First and most importantly, because governments are not the source of rights.  Second, because the unmediated will of the people can quickly turn into mob rule. In this respect it is useful to remember that when Benjamin Franklin famously said  “…a republic if you can keep it” he did not use the word democracy. He said republic which, among other things, reflected the careful Madisonian checks and balances embedded in the system.

That was then and this is now. And in some ways the mob is now ascendant. So how did we get here?

The corrupt use of language, a sin committed by a whole host of players, is a key element. In fact an insistence on the proper definition of words is now seen as justification for righteous indignation. Consider the recent court case of Garland v. Cargill (the bump-stock case).

The Supreme Court held by a 6-3 majority that attaching a bump stock to a semi-automatic rifle does not in fact turn a semi-automatic rifle into a machine gun. The Trump administration had enacted a regulation which asserted that the use of bump stocks created machine guns, the use of which by civilians is banned by the National Firearms Act of 1934. (By way of reminder, the ATF on at least 10 separate occasions, held that use of bump stocks did not qualify as creating machine guns.) 

That fact was insufficient to contain the predictable over-the-top  liberal response to the holding. For instance, in the Washington Post E.J. Dionne Jr. wrote:

Conservatives on the U.S. Supreme Court have decided that more Americans must die in mass shootings because they have a quibble over the word “function.”

Note the word “quibble”. He then went on to say:

 “…the court’s six conservative justices not only put their ideological preconceptions ahead of rational policymaking. They also privileged an arrogant, misplaced confidence in their own technical expertise over a federal agency’s thoughtful effort to prevent the grotesque slaughter of innocents.”

Also, hilariously he scorns the Court for “…arrogant, misplaced confidence in their own technical expertise…”

And finally in his fire-breathing column he claimed that the justices effectively said:

 “We know how guns work, and we consulted several dictionaries about what words mean.

Ahh, the hated use of dictionaries…

Not to be outdone, the Los Angeles Times opined: 

On Friday, the Supreme Court once more narrowed the power of the government to protect the American people from gun violence.

Note the claim “narrowed the power of the government to protect…”

Which of course implies that said government power (1) actually protects, and (2) does not require legislative authorization.  

The NY Times asserted:

 “It is one of the most astonishingly dangerous decisions ever issued by the court, and it will almost surely result in a loss of American lives in another mass shooting.”

Certainly more dangerous than Dredd Scott or Plessay v. Ferguson, wouldn’t you say?

Slate chimed in with this gem: 

This Supreme Court will be squarely at fault for the next mass shooting enabled by a legal bump stock.”

And so on.

Let’s examine a number of common threads in the display of outrage.

 (1) The Supreme Court was dastardly enough to pay attention to definitions used in the law as written—why—to quote E.J. Dionne once again, they even resorted to using dictionaries; 

(2) By reaching a conclusion that liberals don’t like the Supreme Court is responsible for future anticipated deaths. They are apparently unconcerned about the deaths  of unborn children that directly resulted from Roe v. Wade

(3) By implication we are invited to subscribe to the notion that mass shooters would otherwise be law abiding citizens who would never even think of harming their fellow citizens if bump stocks were illegal. (And by the way, how did that theory work out with prohibition, drug use, bank robbery, speeding etc etc.)

(4) Oh, Congress could change the law to take account of technological changes (as Justice Alito noted in his concurrence) if it so desired. 

So hilariously enough, the protectors of democracy are not interested in the hard work of convincing Congress to change a law to change policy, preferring instead to have the law re-written by the Supreme Court. But they are interested in creating a national law that guarantees and finances unlimited abortion on demand.  

That tells you all you need to know. 

JFB

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Flagged

A lot of liberals are up-in-arms (figuratively speaking) about Justice Sam Alito (yet again). They cite 2 related reasons as proximate causes for their angst.  (1) Three years ago, Justice Alito’s wife hung an upside down flag in front of their house over a particularly nasty neighborhood spat. (2) The Alito’s have flown (and for all I know still are flying) an “Appeal to Heaven” flag over their vacation house at the Jersey shore.  

The facts of these cases appear to be largely uncontested; the motivations, however, are not. Is this a tempest in a teapot, or is there some substance to it? Let’s examine the cases, bearing in mind that political smears are used routinely when motivations are in dispute, especially when, as today, there is intense political polarization. 

In the first case, it appears that Martha-Ann Alito flew the offending inverted flag on January 17, 2021 outside the Alito home. Justice Alito is not accused of actually placing the flag himself. Further, the allegation is made that the upside down flag, traditionally a symbol of distress, was actually a signal of support for the January 6 rioters. 

At this point the question must be asked: Where is the evidence that (1) an upside down flag is a sign of support for the rioters, and that (2) Justice Alito was attempting to signal his support for the Jan 6 rioters? Or (3) are Justice Alito’s detractors attempting to make the argument that he should have demanded symbolic silence from his wife who was actually signaling support for the rioters? 

There is zero evidence for any of these theories outside of the fever swamps. But let’s acknowledge that the Jan 6 rioters included an awful lot of deluded kooks, some of whom were disposed toward the use of violence.  After all they did threaten to hang VP Mike Pence.

Let’s look at the flags some rioters flew. The flags included: a Three Percenters militia group flag; a Release the Kraken Flag; Kekistan Flags; Confederate Flags; Gadsden Flags; America First flags, Betsy Ross flags and, oh yes, plain old American flags. 

I for one have no idea what some of these flags are supposed to represent. I do know that an American flag in distress was often used by Vietnam War protesters. And progressives used an inverted flag to protest the overturning of Roe v. Wade. But I would be hesitant to challenge the loyalties of anyone who flew an American Flag; an American flag in distress; a Betsey Ross Flag, or a Gadsden “Don’t Tread on Me” flag (to name a few). 

But what about campus protesters who fly the Palestinian flag? Or how about the routine use of T-shirts emblazoned with a Che Guevara  logo?  How about a Nazi flag? Certainly, Hamas, Che Guevara and the Nazis were bloodthirsty killers. Even if the best and brightest at elite schools haven’y quite figured that out yet. And the meaning of those symbols ought to be unambiguous (excepting of course for the afore mentioned best and brightest). And those who choose to do so, are well within their rights to express themselves with odious symbols. 

The Supreme Court has for a long time ruled that free speech rights, including symbolic speech, trump all else except in cases where imminent violence is threatened. In 1931, the Court ruled in Stromberg v California that expressive speech is a free speech right. That ruling was re-affirmed in Tinker v. Des Moines in 1969. Similarly the court ruled in 1989  in Texas v Johnson that burning the flag was protected by the first amendment. 

So Mrs. Alito, as long as she did not threaten imminent violence, was well within her rights to display an inverted American Flag, just as the couple were perfectly with their rights to fly an “Appeal to Heaven” flag over their vacation home.  The question then becomes: Should either or both have displayed either flag?

Let’s stipulate for the sake of argument that the symbolic meaning of those flags is completely unambiguous. Is the liberal argument that Justice Alito should have told his wife not to fly the inverted American flag. Hmmm. I would have thought that liberals would argue that women are not mere appendages of their husbands; that they are independent actors who make their own decisions. I guess in the progressive mind, that only counts where abortion rights are concerned.

But, the argument goes, Justice Alito should avoid even the appearance of bias. There may something to this argument. But again it assumes the Justice is responsible for his wife’s opinions and behavior.  That said, assuming the symbolic meaning of the inverted flag is unambiguous. Martha Ann Alito probably should have avoided displaying it, if only for appearances sake. But it is certainly not a hanging offense, especially for Justice Alito. 

The “Appeal to Heaven” flag non-controversy is another matter altogether. The charge that it displays sympathy for “Christian Nationalism” is pure bunk. Why? Because for one, (leaving aside the lunatic fringe)  the term is undefined. It is a term designed to signal disdain. It’s just another example of using language to change popular meaning.  Like for instance: Addict (preferred usage: person with substance abuse), Homeless (preferred usage, people experiencing homelessness), Sex change (preferred usage: transition), Breast feed (preferred usage: Chest feed).

By the way, the “Appeal to Heaven” flag was first commissioned and subsequently used by that old insurrectionist, George Washington. Who, truth be told, was an insurrectionist in the eyes of King George III. Here I must say that I would be hesitant to attempt to dissuade people from following Washington’s example of how to live. (And yes, I am perfectly aware that he owned slaves, probably didn’t admit to chopping down a cherry tree and like all humans, was not perfect). 

But let’s not kid ourselves. The uproar over the flag, to put it mildly, is indicative of a dual standard. All we have to do is recount some of the political commentary that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg insisted on making while on the bench. For instance, she is on record saying the following:

“I can’t imagine what this place would be – I can’t imagine what the country would be – with Donald Trump as our president,” Ruth Bader Ginsburg. 

She followed that up, according to the NY Times by saying that her  late husband would have said it was “time for us to move to New Zealand.”

“He is a faker,” she said of Trump. “He has no consistency about him. He says whatever comes into his head at the moment. He really has an ego. … How has he gotten away with not turning over his tax returns?” Ruth Bader Ginsburg on CNN

“It won’t happen,” she said. “It would be an impossible dream. But I’d love to see Citizens United overruled.” Ruth Bader Ginsburg

“I thought Heller was “a very bad decision,” she said, Ruth Bader Ginsburg

“My most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed,” Ginsburg told Clara Spera in the days before her death, NPR reported.

And on it goes. Not that she was wrong about Trump. I actually think she was spot on about him. But that is not the point. She was as political as they come. Except that she was politically aligned with conventional elite opinion, which means that it was quite OK.   

Some liberal commentators raised an eyebrow or two over those remarks, but there was no hue and cry demanding that she recuse herself on a whole raft of cases. And she did apologize, sort of, by saying she would be “more circumspect” in the future. But that just meant she intended to be more cautious about speaking her mind; not that she retracted her comments. 

So yes, if just for appearances, it would have been better if the inverted flag had not flown over the Alito house.  On the other hand, the “Appeal to Heaven” complaints are pure bunk. 

The real story is that a group of progressives are out to get Alito personally because he wrote the majority opinion in the Dobbs case that overturned Roe. And they mean to remake the Court by packing it. This is their latest excuse. The latest faux controversy is just another predictable tempest in-a-teapot. Good for bumper stickers, but that’s about it.

And, by the way, I haven’t heard any wailing lately (or ever) from progressive quarters about the leak of the draft of the Dobbs decision. Funny thing about that. 

JFB

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Is Donald J. Trump a Conservative?

At the moment former President and current Republican presidential nominee Donald J Trump is the defendant in a books-and-records criminal trial in lower Manhattan. Serious people doubt that the books-and-records charges should ever have been brought, much less blown up into 34 felony counts. In fact the argument goes, the Manhattan DA lacks the necessary jurisdiction to prosecute the case. That is because the predicate crime used by Mr Bragg (the elected Manhattan DA) to turn a misdemeanor into a felony and thus avoid a statute of limitations problem, is a federal offense over which he has no jurisdiction. 

But nobody seriously doubts that Mr Trump is lying through his teeth when he denies that (a) he had a sexual encounter with porn star Stormy Daniels and that (b) he ordered his fixer Michael Cohen to pay hush money (not illegal in itself) to cover-up this story (and others).  

I bring the trial up because it is germane to the question under examination, namely, is Donald J Trump a conservative?

He is routinely referred to as a conservative in the mainstream press. Sometimes he is referred to as being “far right” which in today’s popular usage roughly means being “very” conservative. 

Why is all this relevant to Mr Trump’s political posture?  It is relevant because conservatism in America has tended to  claim that it is founded on what we might call traditional values.  It has championed family, community, local governance, civil society, religion and limited government. It favored incremental change. It abhorred central planning and bureaucratic top-down commands from on high. Above all, character and culture mattered to conservatives. 

So the question must be asked: How does this rough description of the broad outlines of American conservatism align with either: (a) Mr Trump’s behavior or (b) his policy proposals?

The quick answer is: It doesn’t. 

It is simply beyond any doubt that Donald Trump is, essentially, a libertine. That is close to the opposite of a conservative. The idea that he would show any restraint in pursuit of what he considers to be in his personal interest is beyond risible. The man, like Bill Clinton, is a walking appetite. 

Further, his supporters have adopted the Clintonesque facade of separating his “personal life” from his public persona. They argue that he is a fighter who cares about them. That he is a disrupter who will clean the swamp. In short, he and his supporters have (probably unknowingly) adopted key underlying cultural precepts of progressivism. For Donald Trump, the personal is the political. 

Consider, for instance, the laughable claim that the 2020 election was stolen. There are only two possibilities here: (a) the highly unlikely possibility that Donald Trump actually believes this or (2) the far more likely possibility that he is lying, as usual. If he actually believes the election was stolen he is simply delusional, although it is much more likely that he is lying, again like Clinton. Either Clinton, come to think of it.

Consider the implications. In either case, the governing postulate is the idea of “my truth” which is to say Donald Trump’s “truth”. Not The Truth. Which is to say that the actual truth doesn’t matter. Because there is no such thing as Truth. That is a sentiment routinely voiced by progressive intellectuals, or as Nietzsche put it, “There are no facts only interpretations”. It is a sentiment fully embraced by Donald J Trump, even if unknowingly.     

Let’s get away from the personal for the moment and examine Trump’s policy proposals. One of the best places to look for a presidential candidate’s policy proposals is the convention platform. That presents a bit of a problem though because in 2020, the Republican Party didn’t bother to adopt a platform. Which says something about Trumpian egomania. So much for avoiding the personal; it’s all about him. 

Nevertheless we can suss out Trump’s policy inclinations from things he has said. But it is important to keep in mind his erratic and unpredictable behavior in any attempt at analysis. A couple of key issues: it is clear that Trump is hostile to a global free trade regime; he is a fan of industrial policy; he is antagonistic toward NATO and like Joe Biden, he loves spending giant wads of other people’s money that he doesn’t have, particularly for entitlements. 

None of these attitudes even remotely reflect a conservative policy outlook. Conservatives have been championing free trade at least since the Reagan years and arguably before. It is only recently (to their credit) that some liberals have come around to the benefits of free trade. Progressives— who tend to see the world in zero sum terms—are still hostile to free trade. They prefer using trade as a vehicle for industrial policy—as does Mr Trump. 

Support for NATO—and other allies—has mostly been an area of agreement between liberals and conservatives in the post WW2 era. But Donald J Trump has campaigned against what he terms “forever wars”; has threatened to walk away from our NATO treaty obligations, and has shown a remarkable liking for strong men abroad. These positions are hardly what conservatives—especially those in the Ronald Reagan mold—would support.  

Now consider fiscal policy. Mr Trump—along with President Biden—has pledged not to touch Social Security. To put this in perspective, keep in mind that Social Security benefits totaled $1.4 trillion in 2023. By way of contrast, the military spent $820 billion in 2023. The trustees of the Social Security System estimate that the so-called trust fund will be depleted by 2034, necessitating a 20% reduction in benefits. 

Entitlement outlays, which constitute the bulk of federal expenditures, are the main driver of spending in a federal budget that is already wildly out of control. Refusing to reform the system, continuing to add over a trillion dollars a year to debt  accumulation and effectively setting up a guaranteed reduction in benefits is hardly a conservative policy stance. 

So when it comes to his personal behavior or his policy inclinations either in foreign or domestic policy Trump can hardly be called an American conservative. But there is a sense in which he can be called conservative in another context. That context is the conservatism of continental Europe of the 20th century. 

Continental European conservatism, as distinguished from Thatcherite British conservatism, was distinguished as an altar-and-throne type of conservatism. It often featured a monarchial system backed by the Catholic Church. Spain under Generalissimo Franco was a perfect example of that. And truth be told, Continental European populist conservatives are making a bit of a comeback. 

There is, for instance,  Viktor Orban in Hungary. Giorgia Meloni of Italy gets a nod. Belgium, Sweden and the Netherlands have recently seen strong electoral showings by right wing populists. 

In America Catholic Integralists, who display some similar characteristics, are starting to make a mark. Public intellectuals like Patrick Deneen, a political scientist at Notre Dame rose to fame with his 2018 book Why Liberalism Failed. Adrian Vermeule, a professor of Constitutional Law at Harvard Law has voiced support for Catholic integralism. Sohrab Ahmari, op-ed Editor of the NY Post is one of the more visible spokesmen for Catholic Integralists. 

But mainstream conservatives in America have kept their distance. In fact, Bret Stephens, a mentor and friend of Ahmari recently scorched him as Ahmari (who has gone through numerous ideological transformations) went from an “urbane, intelligent and unfailingly good-humored” mainstream conservative to exhibit the kind of personal nastiness that many on the right now seem to value. 

So what can we conclude?  That Donald J Trump is no conservative–at least by American standards–either with respect to his personal behavior or with respect to his policy inclinations. It would be more accurate to describe him as someone who has unknowingly adopted the philosophical beliefs of progressives and combined them with attitudes typical of European strongmen.

 JFB

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